Mercury vs Dream WNBA Tonight Odds, Picks & Predictions

Game one on the WNBA roster on Sunday features a showdown between veteran Phoenix Mercury and rookie Atlanta Dream. Both teams are looking to recover after recent losses but read on for our free WNBA betting picks and predictions to find out why we prefer Phoenix on the road in Mercury vs Dream.

Dream odds vs Mercury

Odds via Covers Line, an average consisting of odds from many sports bets.

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Mercury vs dream predictions

The predictions were made on 5/28/2022 at 10:30 PM ET.
Click on each prediction to go to the full analysis.

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Information about Mercury vs Dream

Site: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
DateSunday 29 May 2022
warning: 12:00 pm Eastern time
Television: CBS

Mercury vs Dream . preview

Major injuries

Mercury: Britney Greiner C (outside), Kia Nurse Gee (outside), Sophie Cunningham Gee (outside), Shi Bedi Gee (outside).
Dream: Monique Billings F (outside).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting direction to know

Mercury is 6-1 versus prevalence in the last 7 meetings. find more WNBA Betting Trends To Mercury vs Dream.

Mercury chooses versus dream and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of streak and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite across all markets.

diffusion analysis

Phoenix Mercury got off to a slow 2-5 start to this WNBA season after a narrow loss to the Los Angeles Sparks that wasn’t impressive either. Meanwhile, Dream is advancing in the water with a 4-3 score but suffered a 70-50 loss on Tuesday against the Washington Mystics.

The central story behind Mercury’s struggles is clearly the continued arrest of Britney Greiner by Russian authorities, and it would be reckless to expect them to easily replace her All-Star caliber production. However, their 2-5 start probably doesn’t fully represent the quality of the team Mercury could be, even in Griner’s absence.

This game has all aspects of penalty shootouts in the old west. Mercury and Dream are 3-point teams for the New School, and both feature outstanding star talent.

However, Mercury has been cruel victims of this season’s poor shooting variation. In terms of size, the Phoenix is ​​the third-highest 3-point shooting team in the WNBA, and with Tina Charles serving as a five-stranded, they frequently do line-ups with shootouts at each location. But for a normally talented group, the shots didn’t fall off. Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles and Diamond DeShields are the larger bowlers from depths and they all shoot below — or near less — not only their career averages, but the league average W from depths.

Without Britney Greiner, Mercury’s finishing touches, free throws, and rebounds all go down significantly, which means that their three-point shooting is a key factor to their success. If we look closely at their 2-5 record, three losses have come at the hands of the Las Vegas Ice, who have the appearance of a juggernaut early in the season and perhaps the best runaway team in W this season.

Dream, in turn, was riding the hot start for #1 overall pick Rhyne Howard, who came out with firearms to start her career. Howard shoots 42.9% in seven attempts in every game of three and averages 17.6 points per game to lead the dream in scoring.

Howard really does highlight advanced steps, transitions, and a solid drag game. The variety of her outside shots was noticeable to the player in her first year. But in the previous Dream’s 20-point loss to the Mystics, Howard went 0-for-9, including 0-for-4 from deep, revealing just how much Atlanta’s solo attack depended on Howard’s nightly greatness already. .

Mercury is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Even without the Griner, the Skylar Diggins-Smith and Phoenix core have a more distributed scoring attack that should allow them to beat Dream on the road.

prediction: Mercury -1.0 (-110 in Bitway)

Over / Under Analysis

With both teams wanting to bomb away from the outside, the total was set at 163.5 even though Dream only scored 50 points on their last run.

That total appears to be based largely on the fact that Phoenix has the worst defensive team in the WNBA so far this season with a rating of 112.4. But much of that was the result of an unsustainable three-point shooting differential.

The opposing teams shot north at 40% against the Mercury on the outside, mostly at the hand of their three losses to the aforementioned prevailing aces. The 3-point opponent’s percentage is one of the least sustainable defensive numbers in professional basketball, so Mercury is defensive will, in all likelihood, look closer to the mean once you break out of these levels. Furthermore, when the team’s shots start to fall, it also gives them a chance to fine-tune their defense.

Both teams rarely reach the error line, with star players like Diana Torassi and Ryan Howard focused almost exclusively on scoring from the ocean. If either side is tight, it’s hard to see how they’re going to manufacture a quality offense.

prediction: under 163.5 (-110 in Bitway)

best bet

Early records, as well as offensive and defensive rankings, are often deceiving. Mercury isn’t the worst defensive team in the WNBA, nor are they offensively incompetent from behind the arch He also appeared in seven matches.

Mercury’s opponents shoot 40.4% from depths to Phoenix’s 33.7%, a difference of about 7.0%, while Dream opponents shoot a paltry 31.9%. Mercury and Dream each allow 23.7 attempts out of a 3-point range per game, and tied for third place in the WNBA. Therefore, their defensive process from outside the arc is closely mirrored, but they received completely different results.

This kind of gap never makes it through an entire season, and Mercury’s shooting talent on the ground gives them multiple opportunities for positive dips. Their team’s 80.8% free throw percentage is just one more indication that this team has players with solid mechanics.

Howard was a beast, but the Dream 4-3 record was also boosted by two wins over the inexperienced Indiana Fever. When Dream went toe-to-toe with WNBA elites like the Aces or the Mystics with Elena Delle Donne in the line-up, they struggled even more than Mercury, despite being shot overall.

Dream’s attack is one sore note and they lead the league in field goal kicks without assistance. This is impressive, but also difficult to maintain. Heavy reliance on an offensive novice – even one as superior as Howard – has its drawbacks, which is one of the reasons I like to cover it up on the road.

pick or pick: Mercury -1.0 (-110 in Bitway)

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