Never tell sailors about the odds.
At least that was the case all last season. It seemed like every time I looked at the standings it would be a game or two outside the bottom end of the far card, however – the computer formula always said that the chance of them reaching post-season was less than 5%.
In the end, the machines got it right, but M was still fit for this year’s final. Any chance of rediscovering this connection?
Well, their record certainly doesn’t seem to indicate that. After Sunday’s loss to the Astros, the Mariners are 20-28 and have already won 10 games against Houston in the MLS Western League. However, with the playoffs expanded to include 12 teams, they are only 6.5 games away from the Angels in last place.
Well, maybe “just” doesn’t seem like a fair description of the sailors’ predicament. They have won two of their past 10 series and nine of their past 33 matches. As a result, a baseball cue (as of press time) gives them a 7.6% chance of making it past the season.
How do they defy those odds? like him.
#1) Outdoor pickups should play out as expected – or at least close.
AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray actually did a lot better on his final descent than his three runs in six innings suggested. He hit 10 degrees at this stretch, and one of the two runs in the house he gave up looked like a pop fly somehow crept up the wall next to the left field pole. But that doesn’t diminish his average 4.75 win and -0.1 war so far.
Second base player and 2021 All-Star Adam Frazier has an OPS of .675, which is 104 points lower than last year and the second-worst of his career. Jesse Winker, who was also an All Star last year, suffered even more. Much more. Player OPS has dropped from .949 last season to .598 now. Not surprisingly, he has a war of -0.6.
Third base officer Eugenio Suarez, meanwhile, was decent in the power class, having hit nine home runs, but shot 220. In other words, we have a lot of all-stars showing a bit of star power.
No. 2) Bulls need to be revived.
The Mariners had the eighth-best ERA in Major League Baseball last season. The unit was often impregnable which allowed Seattle to win many close matches. this year? Bullpen M is ranked 22nd in the ERA.
Perhaps the poster boy for this drop is Drew Steakenrider, who had a 2.00 ERA last season and a 2.8 WAR. He earned my vote for the “X Factor” award, one of three awards that local media give out to Mariners each season. this year? Steckenrider has an Era of 5.65, War of -0.4 and was recently sent to the Palace. Painkillers do not make believers fanatics.
No. 3) The team must be in good health and maintain its health.
Obviously, no one gets hurt intentionally. But when a guy like Mitch Hanegger, arguably the Mariners’ most consistent player, is out for more than 10 weeks with a sprained ankle, it’s a problem.
Kyle Lewis, the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, finally returned to the Mariners last week after a lengthy recovery from a knee injury and has already made two home runs in four games. These are the key players to Seattle’s success.
There are a lot of other factors, too. Rookie Julio Rodriguez’s stats grow as he approaches the stature of a phenomenon. First baseman T-France and JB Crawford are among the AL’s first in the war, with France 2.7 and Crawford 2.6. They need to keep up.
Meanwhile, there’s Jared Kielnik, who has been one of the most potential players in baseball for a while. Unfortunately, he hit 0.140 this year for Seattle before he was fired.
It’s still relatively early for this team, although the results have been relatively disappointing. But transformation is still possible. If it does, it will be because of what you see above – although it often goes against the odds.