91L turbulence in southeastern Gulf of Mexico likely to become first Atlantic tropical cyclone in 2022 » Yale Climate Connections

The disturbance classified as Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has grown more organized over the past day, and is likely to become the first tropical depression in the Atlantic Ocean or designated storm by Saturday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 91 liters Thursday afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.

The disturbance had marginal conditions to develop on Thursday afternoon, with shear high winds of 20 to 30 knots, ocean waters of 28°C (82°F), and an atmosphere with a mean relative humidity of 65%. Thursday afternoon satellite images show up That 91L has developed a modest area of ​​severe thunderstorms, and a low-level surface circulation was trying to form near the northeastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

Figure 1. Tracking the six-day forecast for 91 liters of 6Z (2AM ET) Thursday, June 2, European Community Model Run (ECENS). The predictions of individual group members are the thin lines, color-coded by the continuous maximum winds (in knots) they predicted. Many of the 51 members expected the 91L to develop into a tropical storm that would hit southwest Florida. (image credit: weathernerds.com)

Although a strong 91L model supported development, wind shear is expected to remain high this week, and any storm that forms in the bay will likely be unable to intensify quickly. The potential for development appears to be greater after the system crosses the Florida peninsula and enters waters off the southeastern coast of the United States on Sunday (Fig. 1).

The 91-liter track will take it to the coast of southwest Florida on Saturday. At the time of landing, a 91L likely wouldn’t be stronger than a 60-mph tropical storm, with a weaker storm likely. Heavy rain from 91 liters will be the main threat, with seven days of rain in excess of five inches expected over parts of Mexico, Cuba, southern Florida and the western Bahamas by Thursday, June 9 (Figure 2). Due to dry air to the northwest of the system, a sharp break point for heavy rain is expected over Central Florida.

South Florida received 2 to 4 inches of rain in isolated amounts of 4 to 6 inches during the Memorial Day holiday, leaving the land saturated in many areas. Downpours of 91 liters may see flooding in parts of southern Florida on Friday.

At 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, a tropical weather forecast, NHC gave 91 liters a two- and five-day formation odds of 80%. The first name on the Atlantic’s list of storms for 2022 is Alex.

Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts (in inches) ending at 12Z Thursday, June 9. More than five inches of precipitation (orange colors) is expected in parts of Cuba, southern Florida and the western Bahamas. Some isolated 10-inch areas (yellow colors) can fall over southernmost Florida. (image credit: NOAA)

Tropical rainstorms are common in Florida during June

to an excellent degree Post Substack By Michael Lowry, a hurricane expert for WPLG TV station in South Florida, More than a third of all tropical storms and hurricane impacts in June have been in Florida since hurricane records began in 1851. The impact of Florida was Tropical Storm Colin in 2016, which inundated up to 17 inches of rain in the Tampa Bay area. Prior to Colin, Florida had Tropical Storm Andrea in June 2013, which produced up to 13 inches of rain in parts of north Miami Beach, and Tropical Storm Debbie in June 2012, which brought torrential rain across the Florida peninsula, with what fell Approximately 30 inches only. South Tallahassee.

CSU raises its seasonal forecast numbers

The June 2 forecast From the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University (CSU) calling for a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean with 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 severe hurricanes and Accumulated hurricane energy (ACE) for the year 180. Their previous outlook, issued on April 7, called for 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 severe tornadoes, and Accumulated hurricane energy (ACE) of 160. CSU’s new forecast predicts the odds of a major hurricane hitting the United States around 76% (the long-term average is 52%). The CSU team gives a 51% chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast or the Florida Peninsula (the long-term median is 31%), and a 50% chance of a Gulf Coast (the long-term median is 30%). The forecast includes a 65% chance of at least one major hurricane hitting the Caribbean Basin (the long-term average is 42%). The numbers projected from April were increased due to a lower chance of an El Niño event, and temperatures higher than normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (see tweet above from lead author of the forecast). CSU’s next forecast will be released on August 4.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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